26 Nov Proactive Wage Cost Control: Planning Ahead to Keep Wages in Check

In hospitality, keeping wages under control without hurting the quality of product and service is one of the biggest challenges. Staff are the heart of the business, but they’re also one of the biggest expenses. If you’re not careful, wage costs can blow out fast. The trick isn’t to cut hours when things get quiet, it’s to plan ahead so the roster already matches what’s likely to happen. That’s what proactive wage cost control is all about.

Why Being Proactive Beats Being Reactive

Plenty of venues fall into the trap of reacting after the fact — the roster week ends, the wage percentage looks too high, and managers scramble to trim hours next time. But by then, the money has been spent, and the damage is done. Staff get frustrated, guests notice slower service, and everyone feels like they’re playing catch-up.

Being proactive means using real information — past sales, local events, even the weather — to predict trade and plan rosters ahead of time. When you’ve got a good idea of what’s coming, you can make smarter decisions about who’s on, when, and for how long.

Building a Revenue Forecast

A solid forecast is the foundation of wage control. It’s basically an educated guess about how much revenue you’ll make in a week, based on what’s happening around you. Once you’ve got that number, you can plan your roster to stay within a realistic wage percentage — say, 25–30% of sales.

Here’s what you should look at when building your forecast:

1. Past Trading Patterns

Start by looking at your sales history. What did last Tuesday look like? How did you go the same week last year? Patterns start to jump out — for example, Thursdays might always pick up after payday, or Sundays might slow down after lunch. These trends give you a solid baseline for planning.

2. Weather Conditions

Weather can make or break trade. A warm, sunny day will have beer gardens and beach cafés packed, while a cold, wet snap can leave outdoor venues empty. If you’re running a city café, a storm might mean fewer office workers popping out for lunch, while a ski lodge café will do the opposite — more rain or snow usually means more guests. Checking the forecast before finalising the roster is a small step that can save a lot of wasted hours.

3. Public Holidays and Long Weekends

Public holidays are always unpredictable, depending on your venue type. A CBD café might be dead quiet on a public holiday Monday, while a coastal pub or regional winery could be slammed. Over the Easter long weekend, for instance, many venues in the Mornington Peninsula see double their normal trade — which means more kitchen staff, bar staff, and floor coverage are essential.

4. Local Events and Big-Ticket Drawcards

Here’s where things get interesting. Local events can completely change your trade. Think back to when Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour hit Melbourne. Thousands of fans packed the city for the weekend, and restaurant trade near the MCG and CBD went through the roof.
Venues that planned ahead — by extending trading hours, boosting rosters, and stocking up — had massive weekends. But others that didn’t prepare were caught off guard. Staff were run off their feet, wait times blew out, and plenty of customers were turned away. That’s a classic example of why factoring in big local events makes all the difference.

The same logic applies to major sporting events like the AFL Grand Final, the Australian Open, or even local food festivals. Anything that draws crowds — or keeps them away — will impact your revenue forecast.

5. The Bigger Picture

Sometimes it’s not just local factors. Broader economic trends, tourism numbers, or even flight schedules can affect how busy your venue is. For example, during peak summer holiday season, city hotels might quieten down while coastal and regional venues boom. Keeping an eye on what’s happening in the wider market can help you make better decisions.

Turning the Forecast into a Smart Roster

Once you’ve estimated your revenue, you can plan the roster around it. Let’s say you’re forecasting $50,000 in revenue for the week and you want to keep wages at 28%. That gives you $14,000 to spend on staff. Break that down by day, then by shift, and make sure your total hours line up.

Use roster software that shows you the wage percentage as you build it — that way, you can see straight away if you’re over budget. Leave a bit of flexibility too, as things can change.

Monitoring and Adjusting

Proactive cost control doesn’t stop when the roster’s published. Check your actual revenue against the forecast throughout the week. If Tuesday turns out slower than expected, maybe you can tighten Thursday’s roster. If Friday’s going gangbusters, call in an extra person early.

At the end of each week, review how accurate your forecast was. Did you get it right? What threw you off? Over time, your forecasting skills will improve, and your wage control will become second nature.

Getting the Team on Board

Controlling wages shouldn’t feel like a punishment for the team. Be open about why it matters. When staff understand that keeping wage costs in line helps the business stay healthy — and keeps everyone employed — they’re usually happy to help. Encourage flexibility, cross-training, and teamwork. It’s all about making the business more sustainable, not cutting corners.

Wrapping Up

Proactive wage cost control isn’t just a management buzzword — it’s good business. By looking ahead at trade trends, the weather, public holidays, and local events like the Taylor Swift concerts, you can plan smarter rosters that protect profits and keep service standards high.

In hospitality, we can’t control everything — but we can control how well we prepare. The venues that plan ahead, adjust quickly, and learn from experience are the ones that thrive, rain, hail, or Taylor Swift.